BAZAAR DISPATCH
Notes on Iran's Economy & Middle Eastern Affairs
Tuesday, May 08, 2012
Tat Bank
I am reading the dispatches on Tat Bank, Iran's eighth private bank. The best I can say is that it is going to merge with two recently founded financial institutions to form a new bank called "Mardom Bank". One report speaks of some "irregularities" without further elaboration. Well the positive side of the story is that there is a banking watchdog in Iran. That is comforting, at least partially.
Thursday, March 29, 2012
How Much Darker Should It Get?
Azadeh Moaveni has written a piece for Guardian in which she writes "But the reality is not as black and white as Tehran makes out. American law includes provisions allowing Iran to procure spare parts by applying to the US treasury department for a special licence. Under this provision, Iran applies for what it needs through an intermediary and the parts are installed in a licensed third-country, such as by Lufthansa in Germany. Iran has availed itself of this option in the past, and the treasury has issued nearly a dozen special licences related to its civil aircraft, according to a treasury department official. Given that Tehran is pretending this provision doesn't exist and is declining to use it more aggressively, Washington should make the case that Iran is playing its own cynical game."
I read this part several times and shared it with a few friends. While I have no doubt that Ms. Moaveni's ultimate goal is to reduce the pain and sufferings of Iranian people, I doubt that she has a true grasp of the factual reality which exists on the ground. The truth is that the aforementioned provisions and the procedures to use them are not known. And even if they were implemented in practice, benefiting from them would not be that simple.
First one does not apply to U.S. Treasury on his or her own. The interactions between nations are ruled and governed by national governments. Particularly in Iran where national sovereignty is emphasized on a daily basis such applications without the government's explicit authorization are nothing short of treason.
Secondly even if Iranian businesses apply to be exempted from sanctions on humanitarian grounds on what basis these exemptions will be granted. The public sector is the largest sector in Iran's economy and Iranian government either owns or controls most of the industries in this county.
Third few private entrepreneurs in Iran have the resources to apply for such permits on their own. The financial burden will be too heavy and the process too time consuming. Paradoxically only businesses with government connections and access to government resources could go through this process. Wouldn't this be against the spirit of sanctions?
Since Ms.Moaveni has paid particular attention to Iranian airlines and their plight, I would like to point out a few particulars about this industry in Iran. Iranian airlines are a mix of public, semi-private and private firms. The problem is not lack of parts, it is the age of the existing fleet. Iran is one of the few countries, if not the only one, where one still could board a Boeing 707 or a 727-100 or a 747SP. These are considered classic airplanes these days. Both private and public airlines do not have access to modern aircraft. Even if one or two private airlines in Iran could receive such exemptions one would wonder how they should manage the financial transactions for this process. No banks would accept their wires and Iran banking system is being isolated aggressively. In my last trip to Iran I talked to the director of a private flight school where men and women learn to fly and receive their licenses. The operation was fully private with two women flight instructors. The director was desperate, since he could not get either parts for his light single engine airplanes or replace them with new ones. He told me "We simply do not have the funds to keep bypassing sanctions".
The fact is that the situation does not need to be pictured as black and white. Since it is black. And may be that is why now owning up to it has become a bit difficult.
I read this part several times and shared it with a few friends. While I have no doubt that Ms. Moaveni's ultimate goal is to reduce the pain and sufferings of Iranian people, I doubt that she has a true grasp of the factual reality which exists on the ground. The truth is that the aforementioned provisions and the procedures to use them are not known. And even if they were implemented in practice, benefiting from them would not be that simple.
First one does not apply to U.S. Treasury on his or her own. The interactions between nations are ruled and governed by national governments. Particularly in Iran where national sovereignty is emphasized on a daily basis such applications without the government's explicit authorization are nothing short of treason.
Secondly even if Iranian businesses apply to be exempted from sanctions on humanitarian grounds on what basis these exemptions will be granted. The public sector is the largest sector in Iran's economy and Iranian government either owns or controls most of the industries in this county.
Third few private entrepreneurs in Iran have the resources to apply for such permits on their own. The financial burden will be too heavy and the process too time consuming. Paradoxically only businesses with government connections and access to government resources could go through this process. Wouldn't this be against the spirit of sanctions?
Since Ms.Moaveni has paid particular attention to Iranian airlines and their plight, I would like to point out a few particulars about this industry in Iran. Iranian airlines are a mix of public, semi-private and private firms. The problem is not lack of parts, it is the age of the existing fleet. Iran is one of the few countries, if not the only one, where one still could board a Boeing 707 or a 727-100 or a 747SP. These are considered classic airplanes these days. Both private and public airlines do not have access to modern aircraft. Even if one or two private airlines in Iran could receive such exemptions one would wonder how they should manage the financial transactions for this process. No banks would accept their wires and Iran banking system is being isolated aggressively. In my last trip to Iran I talked to the director of a private flight school where men and women learn to fly and receive their licenses. The operation was fully private with two women flight instructors. The director was desperate, since he could not get either parts for his light single engine airplanes or replace them with new ones. He told me "We simply do not have the funds to keep bypassing sanctions".
The fact is that the situation does not need to be pictured as black and white. Since it is black. And may be that is why now owning up to it has become a bit difficult.
Sunday, March 11, 2012
Neither Shahs Nor Mullahs
Today Bravo is going to broadcast "Shahs of Sunset" a reality show about six Iranian-American men and women or as one of the local radio stations in Atlanta calls them "six Persian-Americans". These not so young individuals live in Los Angeles, home to the largest Iranian immigrant population in the United States. The show is another reality TV production, filled by drama, to use a polite word, and that attractive surreal reality. It is made to entertain. However there is little doubt that it will trade one stereotype, the angry bearded fundamentalist from Tehran, for another one; vulgar, materialistic show-off from "Tehr-Angeles". Neither can possibly be representing Iran or Iranian people.
As I hear the commercials about this TV series filled by "pool parties", "extravagant lifestyle" or "brand orientation" of these characters I could not help but thinking of real Iranians and real Iranian Americans. I cannot help think of my friends in other cities, where they devote their time to their families. These days they are getting ready to celebrate Nowruz. They could be anywhere from Oshkosh, WI to Columbus, SC. Last year a friend who actually lives in Oshkosh told me that she had to spent one whole week preparing decorations and table covers. So the dozen families who live in the vicinity could get together to celebrate the coming of spring. She will not be on this reality TV, since she is really real.
I also cannot help thinking of average Iranian living in Iran. These days I am working on a piece about Iranian NGO and I remember Zahra, a 30 years old mother of a two year old. We met in our Alma mater in Tehran. The NGO was a group of students dedicated to help impoverished children and to assist in their education. Their office was one small room in the student center on campus. While Zahra talked to me about their challenges her two year old son strolled around. The furniture consisted of a very old table, couple of chairs. In a corner two students were packing boxes of hygiene products for the children. Zahra was tired, she had a full time job and It was 8:00 PM. For those kids, who are always absent from news and articles about Iran and Iranians, the show will come as a gross misrepresentation of the truth. They do not care about the brand they are wearing, as long as they are wearing something! So no I am not happy about "Shahs of Sunset".
Roshanak Taghavi has written a great article for CSMonitor describing the dilemma many Iranian and Iranian Americans face. I think "confusion" describes the reaction the best. On one side some think the show provides a fresh insight into Iranian culture, some argue that it is the last stage in Americanization of Iranian Americans. And many are unhappy that their choices are either Tehran or Tehr-Anglese. For one I wonder when the world and the media would see us for who we really are; like anybody else we try to succeed while almost everybody else refuses to see us for ourselves. We are neither Shahs or Mullahs. We are just humans like anybody else and kinda tired of stereotypes.
As I hear the commercials about this TV series filled by "pool parties", "extravagant lifestyle" or "brand orientation" of these characters I could not help but thinking of real Iranians and real Iranian Americans. I cannot help think of my friends in other cities, where they devote their time to their families. These days they are getting ready to celebrate Nowruz. They could be anywhere from Oshkosh, WI to Columbus, SC. Last year a friend who actually lives in Oshkosh told me that she had to spent one whole week preparing decorations and table covers. So the dozen families who live in the vicinity could get together to celebrate the coming of spring. She will not be on this reality TV, since she is really real.
I also cannot help thinking of average Iranian living in Iran. These days I am working on a piece about Iranian NGO and I remember Zahra, a 30 years old mother of a two year old. We met in our Alma mater in Tehran. The NGO was a group of students dedicated to help impoverished children and to assist in their education. Their office was one small room in the student center on campus. While Zahra talked to me about their challenges her two year old son strolled around. The furniture consisted of a very old table, couple of chairs. In a corner two students were packing boxes of hygiene products for the children. Zahra was tired, she had a full time job and It was 8:00 PM. For those kids, who are always absent from news and articles about Iran and Iranians, the show will come as a gross misrepresentation of the truth. They do not care about the brand they are wearing, as long as they are wearing something! So no I am not happy about "Shahs of Sunset".
Roshanak Taghavi has written a great article for CSMonitor describing the dilemma many Iranian and Iranian Americans face. I think "confusion" describes the reaction the best. On one side some think the show provides a fresh insight into Iranian culture, some argue that it is the last stage in Americanization of Iranian Americans. And many are unhappy that their choices are either Tehran or Tehr-Anglese. For one I wonder when the world and the media would see us for who we really are; like anybody else we try to succeed while almost everybody else refuses to see us for ourselves. We are neither Shahs or Mullahs. We are just humans like anybody else and kinda tired of stereotypes.
Sunday, February 19, 2012
A Photo from Hiking in Tehran
Last Christmas I went hiking with a group of friends in Chin Kalagh in Northwest of Tehran. Chin Kalagh has a decent trail which is not very crowded, unlike Darakeh and Touchal. The slope is mild at the beginning then it peaks up as one goes higher. The peak offers a breathtaking view of Tehran, Sa'adat Abad and Farahzad. My good friend Shayan has taken these photos in his last hike with other students from Sharif GSME. It is so wonderfully beautiful that I thought it should be shared.
Saturday, February 18, 2012
Information or Truth
Yesterday I discovered World Affairs Council of Atlanta. Today theme was "Democracy. Democratization. Development". It was a great meeting, the speeches I was able to hear covered information technology transformation, development projects and the importance of democracy in achieving sustainable economic growth.
The interesting part of discussion was about social media and the reality. Many credited Facebook and Twitter with sparking Arab Spring. Speakers told the audience this is simply is not true. On the other hand all present admitted that internet has provided them with access to videos and individuals. However the stream of videos and photos and other contents from crisis areas in the world does not necessarily paint an accurate picture. Many referred to the fact that much of information could be distributed to broadcast a biased image. The internet and social media have reduced journalists' interactions with their subjects as well. Many sit in their offices and collect information via social networks. They even let social networks decide their agenda and headlines.
For me this highlighted the significance of personal motives or utility maximization behavior. Individuals do not send out information to tell the truth, but to tell their side of stories. And not everybody is truthful in recalling events and motives. As one of the audience pointed out "we have the information, but what is the reality?"
I think the greatest challenge in coming years is to overcome the asymmetry caused by personal motivations and interests.
The interesting part of discussion was about social media and the reality. Many credited Facebook and Twitter with sparking Arab Spring. Speakers told the audience this is simply is not true. On the other hand all present admitted that internet has provided them with access to videos and individuals. However the stream of videos and photos and other contents from crisis areas in the world does not necessarily paint an accurate picture. Many referred to the fact that much of information could be distributed to broadcast a biased image. The internet and social media have reduced journalists' interactions with their subjects as well. Many sit in their offices and collect information via social networks. They even let social networks decide their agenda and headlines.
For me this highlighted the significance of personal motives or utility maximization behavior. Individuals do not send out information to tell the truth, but to tell their side of stories. And not everybody is truthful in recalling events and motives. As one of the audience pointed out "we have the information, but what is the reality?"
I think the greatest challenge in coming years is to overcome the asymmetry caused by personal motivations and interests.
Sunday, February 05, 2012
Arresting Data
The administrator of Mesghal.com has been arrested. He has been accused of attempting to distort the market as part of a plot to dis stabilize the economy. Mesghal.com is a website dedicated to covering currency and precious metal markets in Iran and across the globe. It has become the reference for many who work in these markets in Tehran.
Thursday, February 02, 2012
A Contractionary Fiscal Policy
Well here we are the budget is in finally for IRI. It seems they are cutting spending, how successfully? no one will know.
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